If you’re like me, tariffs aren’t just a topic that pops up in your news feed, they’re also increasingly a subject of conversation in meetings with partners and customers.

A few predictions I’ve come across recently:

• Inflation is expected to from 1% to 1.5%, which will dampen disposable income and slow consumer spending in Q2 and Q3. The risk of recession has jumped to 40%. (Northspyre)
• In particular, the cost of materials like steel, lumber, and complex HVAC systems will increase. (JLL)
• Many companies will delay signing any new leases because of uncertainty, and many will rely more heavily on foreign, third-party logistics companies. (Commercial Edge)

It’s too soon to say what import duties, carve outs and trade deals ultimately get implemented. And ultimately, every business will be impacted differently.

For me, and I think for a lot of retailers I speak with, this economic uncertainty is a reminder to focus on the things you can control.

How will potential tariffs impact business?

💥 Consumer demand is unpredictable

Tariffs increasing the possibility of economic recession will significantly impact consumer spending. Interestingly enough, businesses are currently seeing a surge in sales due to confusion and urgency. I’m curious to see how this changes (or doesn’t) in coming weeks and months.

🚨 Supply chains disruptions mean challenges for large retailers and SMBs

If higher tariffs do go into effect, small businesses are most impacted because they have less working capital and less leverage with suppliers. Many businesses have shared they’re pausing expansion plans and scaling back hiring due to the uncertainty.

If you’re a small or mid-sized retailer, we'd love to hear your thoughts on this ^

Larger retailers may have the resources to continue to execute on existing growth plans. Retail Dive shares interesting quotes from retail execs who remain more focused on prioritizing consumer costs. However, large retailers have less agility in a volatile market, and will have to continue developing long-term expansion plans and making capital investments.

💸 Tariffs will impact construction costs

For retail landlords and developers, the worry is around vacancies and stalled construction. Tariffs increase costs across the board, making it harder to start or complete new builds on time and on budget. Construction costs will rise, the real question is how much and when. CBRE predicts that costs for commercial projects could increase by 3-5%.

This LinkedIn newsletter by Neil Lockhart shares very concrete tips on what construction managers can do in the face of rising costs, like lock in supplier agreements, embrace alternative materials, and invest in workforce training and retention.

So...what can be done?

In an environment this unpredictable, businesses should look for ways to reduce risk wherever possible. For retailers, one of the more overlooked (but critical) ways to do that is to tighten their control over permitting.

Fast and predictable permitting keeps you agile in an unpredictable environment

Getting permits faster gives you more agility. You don’t have to commit capital to stores months before they open, and you have time to make smarter decisions while still hitting your 2025 opening targets. It also helps you avoid costly change orders caused by delays between bidding and breaking ground.

I’m constantly meeting with retail leaders and real estate developers, hearing just how costly permitting delays are for everyone.

Every extra month spent waiting for permit approvals can cost tens of thousands of dollars in holding costs: things like rent, insurance, utilities, and retainers for staff and other teams.

Even worse, permit delays directly affect retail revenue. Hibbett Sports, a Pulley client, recently shared their story. With Pulley’s team and platform, Hibbett shaved over 110 days off their permit timeline in Jacksonville, Florida, and opened in time for Black Friday, generating over $200,000 in revenue from a single store launch.

The bottom line is…protect your bottom line

No one knows what will come of these tariffs. Will it result in trade wars, inflation, or recession? All of the above, or maybe none of the above?

But one thing I do know: reducing risks in the places you can control (like permitting) can offset rising costs, keep your business agile, and generate more revenue opportunities.

Pulley helps retailers do just that. Our centralized platform and expert permitting service bring structure to one of the most chaotic aspects of retail growth. If you’re curious about how you can reduce permitting times by 50%, or open more stores with less headaches, let’s chat.

In times of uncertainty, predictability and agility can be your superpower.

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